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It can't take too much
longer, before laptops and their desk-top counterparts
lose their built-in disk-drives. We'll probably
see Dells with only removable drives by the end of 2009,
for two reasons. First, solid-state disks are
already on the market. These devices are smaller
and far more durable than their mechanical predecessors
(quick, sell your shares of iOmega).
Second, the nominal
capacities of solid-state disks are doubling rapidly, as
the prices for the devices fall with comparable speed.
Given the current rates of change, by the end of this
year we can expect to see solid-state disk prices in the
range of $1/GB. When the $1/GB range is at hand,
the need for built-in disk-drives evaporates entirely,
and the ability to swap solid-state disks in and out of
computers creates interesting benefits for a number of
groups.
What effect will
cheap, solid-state disks have on computers and their
manufacturers? They will cause the
hyper-standardization of computers, globally, and they
will put computers as far into the commodity category
as, say, conference-room coffee-makers.
Computer-prices won't be very far from those of
coffee-makers, either. But, the benefits will
extend well beyond mere prices.
Frequent flyers can
lose the laptops, the power-modules, the electrical
cords, the extra batteries, and the cases, and they
still can take all their apps with them, in their
shirt-pockets. Why? First, all the Hampton
Inn sites will provide the complimentary use of diskless
laptops, for guests. Second, the conference-rooms
at the destinations' worksites will have
hyper-standardized, diskless desk-tops, for guests and
for local workers alike.
Even Boeing will jump
into this fray, when its customers start asking for
seats with hyper-standardized, diskless computers built
into them, first for the biz-class seats and later in
the sardine-class seats. Just think. You
won't have to worry about the jerk in front of you
crumpling your laptop.
The fad for
solid-state disks and diskless-computers will bubble to
wealth-maker size, when teenage boys grasp the real
significance of the high-capacity, solid-state devices.
All the walking warehouses of testosterone among us
won't need to worry that mom and dad might find their
gigabytes of pornpegs, while they're hanging out at the
mall. The solid-state disks and the pornpegs will
be in their back-pockets, not in their computers at
home.
Mom and dad will see
benefits too, in machines with removable solid-state
disks. If they have to share a family-computer
with the kids, mom and dad won't need to worry about all
the spyware and viruses that the kids might collect with
LimeWire.
Mom and dad can really
bring their work home, too, and they don't have to carry
a 10-pound laptop to do it. At the office, they
can hold meetings on shared, conference-room machines
and no longer worry about installing apps and
license-keys, before the meetings.
Of course, some
problems might be created as well, for software vendors.
But, I'm sure that these folks can figure out something
that works for them and squeezes more money out of the
rest of us.
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